Today: UA 2411 at 16:48 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–37%.

Safest bet today UA 2411 TYS 16:48 → DEN 17:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4369 TYS 20:19 → DEN 21:42 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2411 United	TYS 16:48	DEN 17:55	18%	6%	0.1%	no record
UA 720 United Flight history →	TYS 16:56	DEN 18:20	18%	6%	0.1%	70%
WN 4254 Southwest	TYS 17:30	DEN 18:28	27%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1645 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 16:20	DEN 17:35	28%	6%	0.1%	58%
F9 4369 Frontier Flight history →	TYS 20:19	DEN 21:42	37%	14%	0.8%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON