Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Knoxville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: YX 4432 at 14:51 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops today


YX 4432 Republic	TYS 14:51	LGA 16:59	15%	9%	0.2%	no record
DL 5455 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	TYS 17:17	LGA 19:13	38%	16%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	6h 33m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	5h 54m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:56 → DTW 19:36DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	2h 14m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	5h 44m	94%	71%
Southwest Details →	TYS 14:20 → DAL 15:35WN 2116	2h 25m Dallas	DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25WN 4852	8h 05m	100%	65%
American Details →	TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 21:54 → LGA 23:56AA 2031	5h 49m	91%	62%
United Details →	TYS 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → LGA 21:54UA 2605	8h 00m	98%	61%
American Details →	TYS 14:57 → DFW 16:30AA 2544	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:00 → LGA 22:24AA 2570	7h 27m	87%	56%
American Details →	TYS 13:54 → DFW 15:24AA 2873	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513	7h 35m	82%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	51m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	4h 22m	72%	58%
American Details →	TYS 19:17 → DCA 21:00AA 5251 · flown by PSA	1h 13m Washington	DCA 22:13 → LGA 23:35AA 4719 · flown by Republic	4h 18m	65%	45%
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655	5h 30m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON