Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 255 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 255 ATL 08:02 → BWI 09:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4428 ATL 19:53 → BWI 22:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 255 Southwest	ATL 08:02	BWI 09:58	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:24	5%	1%	0.5%	89%
WN 1933 Southwest	ATL 10:47	BWI 12:49	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	BWI 10:47	5%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 665 Southwest	ATL 13:12	BWI 15:13	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BWI 13:01	6%	1%	0.5%	89%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	10%	2%	0.5%	69%
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:21	BWI 09:39	10%	4%	0.8%	69%
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BWI 18:41	10%	2%	0.5%	72%
WN 1448 Southwest	ATL 17:12	BWI 19:11	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	12%	3%	0.5%	70%
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:06	BWI 18:09	19%	9%	0.9%	58%
F9 4428 Frontier	ATL 19:53	BWI 22:11	19%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON