Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3560 at 07:06, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3560 Envoy	AVL 07:06	MIA 09:14	7%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	89%
American Details →	AVL 05:58 → CLT 06:55AA 5489 · flown by PSA	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 09:00 → MIA 11:11AA 3184	5h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:47DL 3099	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 20m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 09m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:54 → MIA 18:51DL 719	4h 52m	95%	74%
American Details →	AVL 16:34 → DFW 17:53AA 569	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → MIA 00:28 +1AA 2090	7h 54m	97%	74%
American Details →	AVL 11:21 → ORD 12:25AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MIA 18:40AA 1431	7h 19m	99%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON