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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 121 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2734 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2734 OAK 06:29 → ONT 08:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 584 SFO 18:49 → LAX 20:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2734 Southwest OAK 06:29 ONT 08:03 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3608 Southwest SJC 07:09 ONT 08:29 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1706 Southwest OAK 07:42 LGB 09:02 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2958 Southwest OAK 06:39 BUR 08:04 2% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 2388 Southwest SJC 07:00 LGB 08:29 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3596 Southwest SJC 06:50 LAX 08:15 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3016 Southwest OAK 06:59 SNA 08:23 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2609 Southwest OAK 09:22 BUR 10:40 4% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 346 Southwest SJC 07:10 SNA 08:31 4% 1% 0.7% no record
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 4% 1% 0.8% 94%
WN 2753 Southwest SJC 07:50 BUR 09:02 4% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 1782 Southwest OAK 07:32 LAX 08:52 5% 1% 0.6% no record
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 07:09 SNA 08:56 5% 3% 0.9% 92%
DL 1362 Delta SJC 06:46 LAX 08:09 5% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 3574 Southwest SJC 00:15 BUR 01:27 5% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 2612 Southwest OAK 10:14 LAX 11:40 6% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 14:59 LAX 16:24 6% 3% 0.6% 92%
WN 1194 Southwest OAK 08:48 SNA 10:15 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4537 Southwest SJC 13:36 LAX 14:51 6% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 6% 2% 0.8% 91%
AA 1097 American Flight history → SFO 06:44 LAX 08:15 6% 2% 0.7% 79%
WN 2834 Southwest OAK 11:25 LGB 12:52 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1079 Southwest SFO 07:37 LAX 08:55 7% 1% 0.6% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → SFO 08:33 BUR 09:57 7% 2% 0.7% 84%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 23:05 LAX 00:33 7% 4% 0.7% 92%
DL 1380 Delta SJC 11:30 LAX 12:47 7% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 447 Southwest OAK 14:48 LGB 16:13 7% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1260 United Flight history → SFO 06:58 LAX 08:25 7% 2% 0.6% 89%
WN 4302 Southwest OAK 18:37 LGB 20:02 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2497 Southwest SJC 10:12 BUR 11:29 7% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 554 Southwest OAK 12:08 ONT 13:32 7% 2% 0.5% no record
UA 589 United Flight history → SFO 19:10 SNA 20:55 7% 3% 0.6% 89%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 00:02 LAX 01:13 7% 3% 0.6% 72%
WN 2882 Southwest SJC 12:16 ONT 13:40 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2835 Southwest OAK 14:40 ONT 16:11 8% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2884 Southwest SJC 08:42 SNA 10:04 8% 1% 0.7% no record
OO 5405 SkyWest SFO 07:11 SNA 08:50 8% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 4521 Southwest SFO 08:35 BUR 09:49 8% 2% 3.2% no record
WN 2963 Southwest OAK 17:14 BUR 18:31 8% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 2959 Southwest OAK 12:06 BUR 13:21 8% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 2433 Southwest SJC 10:25 LGB 11:39 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3017 Southwest OAK 11:15 SNA 12:46 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1581 Southwest OAK 19:06 SNA 20:33 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2347 Southwest SJC 09:34 LAX 10:45 8% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2756 Southwest SJC 11:54 BUR 13:08 8% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 1984 Southwest OAK 17:00 ONT 18:27 9% 3% 0.5% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest SJC 09:41 LAX 11:03 9% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest SJC 19:55 LAX 21:22 9% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 1701 Southwest OAK 14:50 SNA 16:20 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2001 United SFO 18:51 BUR 20:22 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2962 Southwest OAK 14:24 BUR 15:41 9% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 4218 Southwest OAK 19:15 BUR 20:36 9% 3% 0.9% no record
OO 5392 SkyWest SFO 07:19 BUR 08:57 9% 3% 1.3% no record
WN 192 Southwest OAK 20:24 ONT 21:51 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 1359 Delta SJC 18:13 LAX 19:32 9% 4% 0.8% no record
WN 3603 Southwest SJC 14:53 LGB 16:09 9% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 3020 Southwest OAK 17:53 SNA 19:19 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1662 Southwest SJC 18:24 BUR 19:38 10% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 3890 United SFO 08:31 LAX 10:00 10% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1457 United SFO 08:55 LAX 10:22 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2396 Southwest SJC 14:59 BUR 16:09 10% 2% 0.9% no record
UA 2478 United SFO 19:06 ONT 20:45 10% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2873 Southwest SJC 16:53 LGB 18:09 10% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 4293 Southwest OAK 13:58 LAX 15:18 10% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 6274 SkyWest SFO 09:10 LAX 10:44 11% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 393 United SFO 16:18 ONT 17:52 11% 5% 0.6% no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history → SFO 08:57 LAX 10:40 11% 3% 1.3% 70%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 11% 3% 0.6% 78%
UA 1799 United SFO 18:51 LAX 20:35 11% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:28 SNA 11:11 11% 5% 0.8% 79%
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 11% 4% 0.5% 73%
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 11% 4% 0.6% 71%
UA 2441 United Flight history → SFO 12:19 SNA 14:22 11% 5% 0.6% 89%
UA 1079 United SFO 21:27 LAX 22:55 11% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1765 Southwest SJC 14:57 SNA 16:22 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 8136 United SFO 19:55 LAX 21:37 12% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 451 Southwest SJC 10:52 SNA 12:13 12% 2% 0.7% no record
OO 5907 SkyWest SFO 08:52 ONT 10:28 12% 6% 0.8% no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:00 LAX 21:38 12% 4% 0.8% 67%
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 20:55 SNA 22:22 12% 3% 0.8% 79%
WN 3610 Southwest SJC 17:02 ONT 18:19 12% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2362 Southwest OAK 16:29 LAX 17:51 12% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3640 Southwest SJC 19:38 SNA 20:59 12% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 1022 American SFO 13:17 LAX 14:49 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:20 SNA 12:03 13% 5% 0.6% 82%
OO 6277 SkyWest SFO 11:43 LAX 13:12 13% 5% 0.8% no record
UA 2764 United Flight history → SFO 16:15 BUR 17:42 13% 5% 0.6% 56%
UA 2115 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 BUR 11:49 13% 4% 0.7% 81%
WN 1881 Southwest SJC 17:03 LAX 18:18 13% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3601 Southwest SJC 18:41 LAX 19:57 13% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2888 Southwest SJC 17:49 SNA 19:11 13% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 2112 Delta SFO 11:49 LAX 13:11 13% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 626 United Flight history → SFO 13:50 BUR 15:17 14% 5% 0.6% 69%
OO 3055 SkyWest SFO 11:54 SNA 13:53 14% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 2114 Delta SFO 17:19 LAX 18:44 14% 3% 0.7% no record
OO 249 SkyWest SFO 10:29 LAX 12:03 14% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 8511 Southwest SFO 11:39 LAX 13:05 15% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3385 SkyWest SFO 12:18 LAX 13:46 15% 4% 0.7% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:08 SNA 19:47 15% 4% 0.8% 71%
WN 800 Southwest OAK 19:09 LAX 20:29 15% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1164 United Flight history → SFO 10:25 LAX 11:52 15% 3% 0.6% 75%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 15% 2% 0.7% 64%
WN 3554 Southwest SFO 10:11 LAX 11:33 16% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 689 Delta SFO 14:27 LAX 15:49 16% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 16% 4% 0.7% 85%
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 16% 5% 0.8% 59%
OO 5597 SkyWest SFO 16:48 SNA 18:44 16% 5% 0.8% no record
F9 2678 Frontier Flight history → SFO 08:09 ONT 09:43 16% 7% 1.3% 58%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:31 16% 5% 0.7% 80%
WN 699 Southwest SFO 12:16 LAX 13:36 18% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 200 Alaska SFO 10:00 LAX 11:21 18% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 3216 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:44 SNA 15:39 19% 5% 0.7% 74%
WN 3546 Southwest SFO 17:42 BUR 19:01 19% 5% 1.3% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest SFO 16:01 LAX 17:31 19% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 1045 Southwest SFO 11:43 BUR 12:48 21% 3% 3.2% no record
OO 5932 SkyWest SFO 13:34 ONT 15:10 22% 7% 0.7% no record
WN 2750 Southwest SFO 20:00 LAX 21:20 22% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 520 Alaska SFO 15:45 LAX 17:09 22% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4529 Southwest SFO 17:28 LAX 18:48 23% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 1407 Alaska SFO 18:22 LAX 19:45 23% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 584 Alaska SFO 18:49 LAX 20:08 27% 4% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON