Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2758 at 06:14, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 MDW 06:14 → MCO 09:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1247 ORD 15:08 → MCO 18:52 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	MDW 06:14	MCO 09:42	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	8%	2%	0.9%	89%
WN 636 Southwest	MDW 08:28	MCO 11:54	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	11%	2%	0.9%	85%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	11%	4%	1.2%	75%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:00	MCO 10:53	11%	3%	2.1%	no record
WN 2764 Southwest	MDW 10:02	MCO 13:25	11%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 376 Southwest	MDW 12:17	MCO 15:42	13%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 617 United	ORD 20:16	MCO 00:03	17%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 11:52	MCO 15:32	18%	5%	2.7%	46%
AA 3293 American	ORD 11:21	MCO 14:59	18%	4%	3.0%	no record
WN 4933 Southwest	MDW 16:29	MCO 19:57	18%	6%	2.7%	no record
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:31	MCO 19:15	22%	9%	1.6%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	22%	10%	6.2%	73%
WN 491 Southwest	MDW 18:10	MCO 21:38	24%	7%	2.7%	no record
UA 2620 United	ORD 13:06	MCO 16:55	25%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:42	MCO 22:18	29%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 20:02	MCO 23:43	30%	10%	2.6%	53%
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:42	MCO 18:22	37%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 18:52	37%	10%	4.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON