tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1431 ORD 14:30 → MIA 18:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time
Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2984 American Flight history → ORD 05:00 MIA 09:09 3% 1% 0.7% 94%
AA 2452 American Flight history → ORD 05:56 MIA 10:01 4% 1% 0.7% 96%
UA 1421 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 FLL 11:13 6% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 2726 Southwest MDW 08:39 FLL 12:31 6% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1358 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 MIA 11:24 6% 2% 0.6% 85%
AA 1875 American Flight history → ORD 07:00 MIA 11:23 6% 2% 0.7% 88%
WN 2412 Southwest MDW 09:16 MIA 13:12 7% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 1424 American Flight history → ORD 06:49 FLL 11:12 8% 2% 0.6% 77%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 07:00 FLL 11:14 9% 3% 0.8% 89%
AA 1250 American Flight history → ORD 08:30 MIA 12:45 11% 3% 0.7% 75%
UA 279 United Flight history → ORD 10:59 FLL 15:13 12% 3% 0.7% 76%
AA 2689 American ORD 10:00 MIA 14:11 13% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1620 United Flight history → ORD 10:33 MIA 14:57 14% 3% 0.7% 77%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history → ORD 08:05 FLL 12:22 15% 4% 0.8% 68%
UA 1294 United ORD 12:40 FLL 16:54 16% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 4269 Southwest MDW 18:04 FLL 21:57 24% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 1159 American ORD 18:57 MIA 23:09 25% 9% 1.3% no record
UA 463 United ORD 17:46 FLL 21:45 26% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 2881 American Flight history → ORD 17:00 FLL 20:58 27% 7% 0.9% 62%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 14:35 FLL 18:49 27% 10% 1.3% 67%
AA 3040 American ORD 18:20 MIA 22:21 28% 9% 1.3% no record
AA 2323 American Flight history → ORD 16:44 MIA 20:52 31% 9% 1.3% 61%
AA 1431 American Flight history → ORD 14:30 MIA 18:40 34% 9% 1.0% 77%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON