Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2557 at 06:04, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 2557 DCA 06:04 → MCO 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1502 DCA 17:43 → MCO 20:11 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2557 Southwest	DCA 06:04	MCO 08:30	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 994 Southwest	DCA 06:08	MCO 08:39	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	9%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	11%	2%	0.4%	82%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:08	MCO 10:46	17%	4%	0.8%	74%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	18%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 1092 Southwest	DCA 12:53	MCO 15:25	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	21%	8%	0.9%	71%
WN 1525 Southwest	DCA 12:44	MCO 15:00	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
B6 8401 JetBlue	DCA 10:49	MCO 13:15	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1643 American	DCA 10:59	MCO 13:26	26%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:30	MCO 21:08	28%	16%	1.9%	62%
DL 1579 Delta	DCA 14:56	MCO 17:27	30%	13%	1.8%	no record
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 15:23	MCO 17:51	34%	16%	2.1%	no record
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 19:55	MCO 22:34	34%	14%	2.1%	57%
WN 429 Southwest	DCA 17:59	MCO 20:28	37%	14%	1.8%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 14:22	MCO 16:54	37%	13%	1.8%	76%worse than usual
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 17:04	MCO 19:46	38%	13%	2.1%	89%worse than usual
WN 1502 Southwest	DCA 17:43	MCO 20:11	39%	15%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON