tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 14:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 09m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:56UA 280 12h 16m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:37 → SEA 12:33AS 373 1h 56m Seattle SEA 14:29 → ANC 17:13AS 1436 11h 36m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 1h 17m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 10h 44m 92% 79%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 18:14 → SEA 20:54AS 296 2h 01m Seattle SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205 11h 26m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 2h 22m Seattle SEA 12:57 → ANC 15:47AS 1434 12h 22m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 00m 85% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 50m Seattle SEA 11:25 → ANC 14:15AS 1432 10h 50m 61% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON