tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 12:37 SFO 15:01 13% 6% 0.6% 80%
QX 2091 Horizon GEG 13:59 SFO 16:13 17% 4% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 6h 22m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 43m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Los Angeles LAX 12:09 → SFO 13:32DL 689 7h 12m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 1h 09m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 4h 16m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 7h 39m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 09:34 → SEA 10:42AS 2069 · flown by Horizon 47m Seattle SEA 11:29 → SFO 13:37AS 688 4h 03m 12% 7%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON