Today: WN 1688 at 17:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–38%.

Safest bet today WN 1688 HNL 17:16 → OGG 18:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1116 HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1688 Southwest	HNL 17:16	OGG 18:13	9%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1983 Southwest	HNL 17:25	OGG 18:22	9%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1551 Southwest	HNL 20:25	OGG 21:22	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest	HNL 20:30	OGG 21:27	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1981 Southwest	HNL 14:02	OGG 14:59	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1871 Southwest	HNL 14:06	OGG 15:03	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1872 Southwest	HNL 15:45	OGG 16:42	12%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	HNL 15:51	OGG 16:48	12%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1870 Southwest	HNL 12:34	OGG 13:31	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest	HNL 12:22	OGG 13:19	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1186 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:26	OGG 19:19	19%	3%	1.4%	78%
AS 1226 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:59	OGG 21:49	19%	4%	1.4%	81%
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:42	OGG 18:23	20%	4%	1.4%	82%
AS 1196 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:32	OGG 20:25	21%	4%	1.4%	85%
AS 1206 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:02	OGG 21:55	21%	3%	1.4%	81%
AS 1216 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:34	OGG 20:24	22%	4%	1.4%	73%
AS 1436 Alaska	HNL 16:02	OGG 16:54	24%	3%	1.4%	no record
AS 1156 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:43	OGG 17:24	25%	4%	1.4%	70%
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	25%	4%	1.4%	75%
AS 1166 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:20	OGG 17:10	27%	3%	1.4%	72%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:19	OGG 16:12	28%	3%	1.4%	71%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:50	OGG 15:43	29%	4%	1.4%	65%
AS 1096 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:32	OGG 13:25	30%	3%	1.4%	79%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:42	OGG 14:35	30%	4%	1.4%	72%
AS 1426 Alaska	HNL 12:18	OGG 13:10	30%	3%	1.6%	no record
AS 1106 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:31	OGG 13:15	34%	3%	1.4%	70%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	38%	4%	1.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON