Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2144 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2144 IAH 05:31 → MIA 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1462 IAH 14:26 → MIA 18:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:31	MIA 09:20	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:58	FLL 11:55	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:48	MIA 11:48	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:18	FLL 14:09	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:52	FLL 15:28	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 19:39	FLL 23:25	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	16%	3%	0.7%	30%
WN 1670 Southwest	HOU 12:03	FLL 15:31	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	17%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	18%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:47	FLL 18:36	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4422 Southwest	HOU 18:32	MIA 22:08	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	HOU 18:20	FLL 21:46	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 12:46	MIA 16:20	25%	6%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:59	MIA 21:03	26%	10%	0.9%	57%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	28%	10%	1.2%	43%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 18:25	MIA 21:57	30%	10%	0.8%	78%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:26	MIA 18:10	35%	12%	1.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON