Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4384 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ILM 05:59	EWR 07:43	9%	3%	1.2%	90%
G7 4524 GoJet	ILM 12:43	EWR 14:31	16%	4%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 41m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	7h 24m	100%	82%
American Details →	ILM 08:21 → CLT 09:43AA 2960	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 10:55 → EWR 12:53AA 1697	4h 32m	92%	81%
American Details →	ILM 07:15 → ORD 08:47AA 3811 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → EWR 13:12AA 2416	5h 57m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 26m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	5h 04m	92%	75%
American Details →	ILM 12:17 → ORD 13:53AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	8h 43m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON