Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:57 pm at New York); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5417 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:12	ROC 23:29	17%	6%	0.2%	69%
9E 5054 Endeavor	LGA 15:44	ROC 17:02	26%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 16:26 → ORD 18:06AA 396	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:15 → ROC 00:10 +1AA 3823 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	8h 48m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ROC 22:58DL 1975	5h 58m	93%	74%
American Details →	LGA 17:09 → DCA 18:41AA 4736 · flown by Republic	3h 31m Washington	DCA 22:12 → ROC 23:37AA 5344 · flown by PSA	6h 28m	100%	72%
United Details →	LGA 13:25 → ORD 15:01UA 1967	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22UA 1568	7h 57m	97%	71%
American Details →	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 19:53 → ROC 21:45AA 3155	7h 14m	93%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON