Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3275 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3275 MCO 05:56 → CLT 07:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 362 MCO 18:47 → CLT 20:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3275 American	MCO 05:56	CLT 07:52	3%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 1647 American Flight history →	MCO 07:01	CLT 08:52	5%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 08:02	CLT 09:51	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	CLT 08:24	7%	3%	1.6%	65%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2170 American	MCO 10:54	CLT 12:43	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2917 American Flight history →	MCO 12:02	CLT 13:50	16%	5%	1.2%	80%
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:20	CLT 15:08	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:41	CLT 16:38	20%	6%	2.1%	74%
AA 1639 American	MCO 14:58	CLT 16:45	21%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 362 American	MCO 18:47	CLT 20:32	33%	15%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON