tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 255 at 12:28, 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 255 Southwest MCO 12:28 OKC 14:22 30% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 6h 57m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:08 → OKC 10:14DL 2490 5h 44m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 17m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:50 → CLT 07:38AA 2127 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → OKC 12:25AA 1626 7h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 14:25 → ORD 16:43UA 2481 3h 25m Chicago ORD 20:08 → OKC 22:19UA 1440 8h 54m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:50 → DEN 14:51UA 1520 2h 40m Denver DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11UA 1184 8h 21m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 7h 07m 91% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCO 11:57 → IAH 13:29UA 1493 3h 07m Houston IAH 16:36 → OKC 18:13UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 7h 16m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497 56m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 4h 57m 57% 49%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:20 → IAH 17:17UA 2456 55m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 59% 49%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 59m Houston IAH 19:57 → OKC 21:31UA 1084 5h 12m 55% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON