Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1228 at 07:28, 5%.

Safest bet that day AA 1228 MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2523 MCO 17:33 → PHL 20:02 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	PHL 11:12	6%	2%	0.9%	81%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:52	PHL 09:45	7%	3%	1.3%	69%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 10:48	PHL 13:21	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:01	PHL 13:53	12%	5%	1.8%	70%
AA 1574 American	MCO 12:14	PHL 14:45	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3268 American	MCO 15:01	PHL 17:31	21%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3153 American Flight history →	MCO 16:09	PHL 18:53	22%	6%	2.1%	70%
WN 2811 Southwest	MCO 15:42	PHL 18:13	24%	5%	1.3%	no record
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:45	PHL 00:36	28%	13%	2.7%	48%
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:41	PHL 21:31	34%	14%	3.6%	59%
AA 2523 American	MCO 17:33	PHL 20:02	37%	13%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON