Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2801 at 06:17, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MCO 06:17 → SJU 09:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2113 MCO 19:29 → SJU 22:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest	MCO 06:17	SJU 09:17	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 646 Southwest	MCO 07:59	SJU 10:54	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SJU 10:10	9%	3%	0.8%	74%
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:42	SJU 09:55	11%	3%	1.2%	68%
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:11	17%	6%	0.9%	86%
WN 1490 Southwest	MCO 09:23	SJU 12:28	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2238 Southwest	MCO 10:38	SJU 13:38	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:37	SJU 15:43	21%	6%	0.9%	72%
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	24%	9%	2.7%	77%
WN 995 Southwest	MCO 13:42	SJU 16:34	25%	5%	1.2%	no record
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:04	SJU 19:10	31%	6%	1.8%	75%
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:35	SJU 17:47	33%	6%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 2832 Southwest	MCO 15:13	SJU 18:05	37%	6%	1.3%	no record
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:09	SJU 22:19	39%	12%	1.8%	69%
WN 1452 Southwest	MCO 19:04	SJU 21:58	44%	11%	1.8%	no record
WN 2113 Southwest	MCO 19:29	SJU 22:34	46%	12%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON