Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4024 at 08:02, 8%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4024 MIA 08:02 → JAX 09:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 416 MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4024 Envoy	MIA 08:02	JAX 09:23	8%	2%	2.3%	no record
AA 4069 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:56	JAX 15:19	20%	6%	10.4%	77%
MQ 4023 Envoy	MIA 17:41	JAX 18:59	27%	9%	11.3%	no record
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	29%	14%	5.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON