tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:56, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 411 Delta Flight history → MSP 14:28 ANC 17:28 13% 2% 0.6% 73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:10 ANC 21:00 15% 3% 0.6% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 11h 22m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:27 → DFW 12:54AA 2220 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → ANC 19:35AA 399 12h 08m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 22m Seattle SEA 19:12 → ANC 21:59AS 1438 10h 03m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 2h 41m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 20m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510 1h 57m Seattle SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228 9h 38m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 3h 27m Seattle SEA 11:25 → ANC 14:15AS 1432 11h 12m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON