Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4977 at 06:29, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 4977 MSY 06:29 → MCO 09:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3554 MSY 15:08 → MCO 18:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4977 Southwest	MSY 06:29	MCO 09:24	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 2943 Southwest	MSY 09:48	MCO 12:32	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2944 Southwest	MSY 15:01	MCO 17:44	34%	9%	2.3%	no record
F9 3554 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 15:08	MCO 18:11	37%	12%	7.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON