Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2323 ORD 16:44 → MIA 20:52 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 05:56	MIA 10:01	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:24	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:23	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	MIA 12:45	10%	2%	0.6%	75%
AA 2689 American	ORD 10:00	MIA 14:11	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 1159 American	ORD 18:57	MIA 23:09	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3040 American	ORD 18:20	MIA 22:21	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MIA 18:40	27%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 16:44	MIA 20:52	30%	8%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON