Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 938 at 06:30, 3%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 106 MCO 17:00 → MDW 18:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	3%	2%	0.9%	91%
WN 359 Southwest	MCO 07:43	MDW 09:33	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:12	ORD 09:19	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	7%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:11	ORD 10:03	8%	3%	1.0%	76%
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 09:00	ORD 10:57	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 290 Southwest	MCO 10:29	MDW 12:11	11%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 662 American	MCO 11:32	ORD 13:32	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:46	ORD 23:02	19%	10%	2.7%	76%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	19%	6%	1.0%	82%
WN 4644 Southwest	MCO 13:10	MDW 14:51	21%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	23%	7%	1.2%	72%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	27%	8%	1.2%	58%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	28%	14%	1.8%	70%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:47	ORD 17:49	30%	9%	1.8%	64%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:38	ORD 18:45	30%	9%	2.1%	42%
UA 2845 United	MCO 17:57	ORD 20:05	31%	14%	1.3%	no record
WN 1429 Southwest	MCO 19:49	MDW 21:35	37%	13%	2.3%	no record
WN 679 Southwest	MCO 17:22	MDW 19:09	38%	12%	2.3%	no record
WN 106 Southwest	MCO 17:00	MDW 18:45	39%	11%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON