Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3154 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3154 RSW 07:05 → PHL 10:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1866 RSW 17:44 → PHL 20:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3154 American	RSW 07:05	PHL 10:03	5%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 2365 American Flight history →	RSW 13:35	PHL 16:18	18%	6%	1.8%	76%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	RSW 17:44	PHL 20:28	27%	10%	2.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON