tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 2514 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2514 Southwest RSW 06:07 STL 07:46 2% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3393 Southwest RSW 18:30 STL 20:07 26% 8% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 6h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → RSW 13:35 → PHL 16:18AA 2365 3h 53m Philadelphia PHL 20:11 → STL 21:43AA 798 9h 08m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:26 → ORD 10:28UA 2347 3h 52m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 8h 20m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 37m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:41 → CLT 10:36AA 2241 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → STL 12:51AA 3096 5h 10m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:00 → ORD 08:26AA 2613 3h 29m Chicago ORD 11:55 → STL 13:19AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 8h 19m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:21 → DFW 16:20AA 2740 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:13 → STL 19:00AA 2487 5h 39m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON