Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1495 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1495 SBA 06:05 → PHX 07:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2928 SBA 12:22 → PHX 14:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1495 American	SBA 06:05	PHX 07:48	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4030 Envoy	SBA 10:16	PHX 11:57	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 928 American	SBA 08:23	PHX 10:02	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2928 American Flight history →	SBA 12:22	PHX 14:03	22%	6%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON