Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1467 at 17:37, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1467 Southwest	SBA 17:37	SMF 18:57	10%	5%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 26m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SBA 18:18 → SLC 21:29DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	5h 26m	98%	91%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 09:14 → SMF 10:50UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	98%	91%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	94%	85%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 40m San Francisco	SFO 18:48 → SMF 19:50UA 1862	5h 52m	99%	83%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	52m San Francisco	SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m	87%	78%
Alaska Details →	SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon	1h 10m Portland	PDX 17:59 → SMF 19:32AS 1500	4h 53m	79%	68%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	3h 56m San Diego	SAN 11:00 → SMF 12:53AS 3439 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	98%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON