Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2768 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2768 SEA 07:35 → ANC 10:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 83 SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:24	ANC 20:18	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	16%	3%	0.6%	73%
AS 85 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ANC 20:34	16%	2%	0.7%	88%
AS 7097 Alaska	SEA 00:31	ANC 03:13	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1438 Alaska	SEA 19:12	ANC 21:59	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 386 Alaska	SEA 07:04	ANC 09:46	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 225 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:59	ANC 19:38	18%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 1436 Alaska	SEA 14:29	ANC 17:13	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 205 Alaska	SEA 22:55	ANC 01:40	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:49	ANC 23:35	19%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 1434 Alaska	SEA 12:57	ANC 15:47	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	20%	3%	0.7%	78%
AS 769 Alaska	SEA 20:13	ANC 22:55	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 9561 Alaska	SEA 16:14	ANC 18:45	23%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1440 Alaska	SEA 13:32	ANC 16:20	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 708 Alaska	SEA 09:45	ANC 12:33	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1432 Alaska	SEA 11:25	ANC 14:15	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	26%	4%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON