Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3855 at 22:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 3855 SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest QX 2176 SEA 08:00 → EUG 09:17 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3855 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 22:35	EUG 23:51	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
OO 3128 SkyWest	SEA 17:46	EUG 19:05	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 181 SkyWest	SEA 15:56	EUG 17:15	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3016 SkyWest	SEA 16:05	EUG 17:31	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
QX 2351 Horizon	SEA 22:37	EUG 23:54	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
DL 4149 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:30	EUG 12:58	23%	9%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
QX 2191 Horizon	SEA 12:27	EUG 13:43	25%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 3928 SkyWest	SEA 11:34	EUG 12:53	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
QX 2188 Horizon	SEA 11:57	EUG 13:14	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
QX 2176 Horizon	SEA 08:00	EUG 09:17	33%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON