Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2635 at 21:39 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2635 SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AS 688 SEA 11:29 → SFO 13:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2635 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:39	SFO 23:59	9%	3%	0.8%	71%
UA 2478 United	SEA 15:17	SFO 17:46	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	SFO 16:49	16%	6%	0.6%	71%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SFO 20:16	16%	5%	0.6%	65%
AS 1385 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:36	SFO 18:48	18%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 1053 Delta	SEA 07:29	SFO 09:34	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2831 United Flight history →	SEA 08:45	SFO 11:03	19%	4%	0.7%	33%
AS 619 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:36	SFO 20:48	19%	5%	0.7%	29%
AS 725 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	SFO 09:20	19%	5%	1.0%	52%
UA 737 United Flight history →	SEA 19:42	SFO 21:49	22%	5%	0.6%	56%
OO 5660 SkyWest	SEA 10:48	SFO 13:28	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2281 United	SEA 13:58	SFO 16:03	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 499 United Flight history →	SEA 07:29	SFO 09:35	23%	4%	0.7%	49%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:18	SFO 13:24	24%	5%	0.7%	64%
AS 628 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:42	SFO 21:54	24%	5%	0.7%	12%
AS 590 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:42	SFO 22:55	24%	5%	0.7%	57%
AS 655 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:42	SFO 14:04	25%	6%	0.7%	70%
AS 528 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:53	SFO 11:09	25%	6%	0.9%	54%
AS 680 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:20	SFO 15:31	28%	7%	0.7%	69%
AS 688 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:29	SFO 13:37	30%	6%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON