Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2314 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2314 FLL 06:59 → IAH 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1788 FLL 18:17 → HOU 19:49 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 06:59	IAH 09:00	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2863 Southwest	MIA 06:46	HOU 08:21	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1787 Southwest	FLL 07:09	HOU 08:44	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	8%	4%	0.6%	85%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:04	IAH 09:57	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:35	IAH 13:24	11%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:54	IAH 10:45	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:55	IAH 14:04	12%	6%	1.2%	85%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	20%	10%	1.8%	45%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:31	IAH 20:37	20%	8%	1.2%	81%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:26	IAH 16:16	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	22%	9%	0.8%	74%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	22%	8%	0.9%	79%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	25%	8%	1.0%	49%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	25%	9%	0.9%	70%
WN 1788 Southwest	FLL 18:17	HOU 19:49	37%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON