Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 37 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1598 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1598 SFO 07:00 → LAX 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 200 SFO 10:00 → LAX 11:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1598 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	LAX 08:30	5%	1%	0.8%	94%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:20	LAX 10:53	7%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 1097 American Flight history →	SFO 06:44	LAX 08:15	7%	2%	0.7%	79%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	SFO 00:02	LAX 01:13	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 1079 Southwest	SFO 07:37	LAX 08:55	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 06:58	LAX 08:25	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1799 United	SFO 18:51	LAX 20:35	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1754 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	LAX 18:05	11%	4%	0.5%	73%
DL 2114 Delta	SFO 17:19	LAX 18:44	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2610 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	LAX 15:35	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 8136 United	SFO 19:55	LAX 21:37	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	SFO 20:00	LAX 21:38	12%	4%	0.7%	67%
AA 1022 American	SFO 13:17	LAX 14:49	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1079 United	SFO 21:27	LAX 22:55	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	LAX 13:55	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
OO 6274 SkyWest	SFO 09:10	LAX 10:44	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3890 United	SFO 08:31	LAX 10:00	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1457 United	SFO 08:55	LAX 10:22	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 08:57	LAX 10:40	13%	3%	1.3%	70%
DL 689 Delta	SFO 14:27	LAX 15:49	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6277 SkyWest	SFO 11:43	LAX 13:12	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3385 SkyWest	SFO 12:18	LAX 13:46	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 249 SkyWest	SFO 10:29	LAX 12:03	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	LAX 11:52	18%	3%	0.6%	75%
OO 6276 SkyWest	SFO 16:01	LAX 17:31	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2112 Delta	SFO 11:49	LAX 13:11	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 8511 Southwest	SFO 11:39	LAX 13:05	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3554 Southwest	SFO 10:11	LAX 11:33	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	LAX 10:07	19%	2%	0.7%	64%
AS 1407 Alaska	SFO 18:22	LAX 19:45	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:09	LAX 11:49	19%	5%	0.8%	59%
WN 4529 Southwest	SFO 17:28	LAX 18:48	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2750 Southwest	SFO 20:00	LAX 21:20	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 699 Southwest	SFO 12:16	LAX 13:36	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 520 Alaska	SFO 15:45	LAX 17:09	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 584 Alaska	SFO 18:49	LAX 20:08	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 200 Alaska	SFO 10:00	LAX 11:21	24%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON