Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2614 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day AA 2614 SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2343 United	SFO 05:00	ORD 11:24	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 3250 American Flight history →	SFO 06:56	ORD 13:24	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:37	ORD 06:57	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2814 American	SFO 09:01	ORD 15:35	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:14	ORD 23:52	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 1958 United Flight history →	SFO 18:44	ORD 00:58	10%	3%	0.5%	92%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	SFO 22:44	ORD 04:49	11%	3%	0.7%	60%
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:58	ORD 23:17	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2885 American	SFO 10:40	ORD 17:06	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:06	ORD 21:29	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2827 United	SFO 10:18	ORD 16:29	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:25	ORD 19:46	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2642 American	SFO 14:53	ORD 21:13	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1922 United	SFO 13:37	ORD 19:59	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	22%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON