Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4532 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4532 SFO 05:59 → SAN 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2286 SFO 18:54 → SAN 20:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4532 Southwest	SFO 05:59	SAN 07:33	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 2260 United	SFO 08:31	SAN 10:18	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1389 United	SFO 23:03	SAN 00:45	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 426 Alaska	SFO 07:14	SAN 08:46	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2496 Southwest	SFO 08:42	SAN 10:16	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 442 United	SFO 21:03	SAN 22:49	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	15%	6%	0.6%	67%
AS 424 Alaska	SFO 08:26	SAN 09:58	16%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 2177 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	SAN 11:51	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 18:57	SAN 20:40	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	SAN 18:39	18%	5%	0.6%	59%
AS 1326 Alaska	SFO 17:07	SAN 18:40	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1668 United Flight history →	SFO 14:21	SAN 16:02	18%	4%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
OO 3007 SkyWest	SFO 09:25	SAN 11:09	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:17	SAN 22:49	22%	6%	1.9%	48%
OO 3099 SkyWest	SFO 16:24	SAN 18:11	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 939 SkyWest	SFO 11:07	SAN 12:51	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 3310 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:36	SAN 13:15	23%	6%	1.0%	77%
WN 1435 Southwest	SFO 11:19	SAN 12:54	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4328 Southwest	SFO 15:19	SAN 16:50	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3562 Southwest	SFO 19:25	SAN 20:58	29%	5%	0.9%	no record
F9 3382 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 16:22	SAN 18:11	30%	9%	1.9%	47%
WN 2286 Southwest	SFO 18:54	SAN 20:27	30%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON