Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4962 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4962 SJU 05:07 → MCO 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 934 SJU 14:52 → MCO 18:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 05:07	MCO 08:04	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 562 Southwest	SJU 05:13	MCO 08:14	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 208 Southwest	SJU 06:37	MCO 09:34	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 724 Southwest	SJU 08:24	MCO 11:24	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3645 Southwest	SJU 10:36	MCO 13:39	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:30	MCO 11:42	8%	3%	1.2%	70%
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 04:57	MCO 07:54	8%	5%	1.2%	83%
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:36	MCO 13:58	11%	4%	1.8%	87%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:04	MCO 14:16	12%	4%	1.3%	73%
WN 3648 Southwest	SJU 12:28	MCO 15:30	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	15%	6%	2.1%	81%
WN 701 Southwest	SJU 18:55	MCO 21:57	18%	12%	2.0%	no record
WN 3649 Southwest	SJU 17:22	MCO 20:33	20%	10%	2.1%	no record
WN 3650 Southwest	SJU 17:45	MCO 20:54	20%	10%	2.1%	no record
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:36	MCO 21:54	22%	11%	3.2%	86%
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:45	MCO 21:58	22%	13%	2.3%	63%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:52	MCO 18:07	26%	9%	2.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON