Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3797 at 07:00, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 3797 SRQ 07:00 → MCO 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3521 SRQ 16:49 → MCO 17:47 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3797 Southwest	SRQ 07:00	MCO 07:58	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4872 Southwest	SRQ 07:18	MCO 08:09	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1167 Southwest	SRQ 17:53	MCO 18:44	47%	26%	3.6%	no record
WN 3521 Southwest	SRQ 16:49	MCO 17:47	50%	25%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON