Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2769 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2769 TPA 07:10 → BDL 09:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 275 TPA 14:46 → BDL 17:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2769 Southwest	TPA 07:10	BDL 09:58	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MX 9009 Breeze	TPA 11:54	BDL 14:42	14%	5%	1.3%	no record
MX 1669 Breeze	TPA 12:26	BDL 15:17	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 275 Southwest	TPA 14:46	BDL 17:38	28%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON