tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1343 Southwest TPA 06:30 BUF 09:14 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3867 Southwest TPA 10:38 BUF 13:21 14% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 3h 35m New York JFK 13:26 → BUF 14:47DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 7h 42m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 44m Dulles IAD 13:06 → BUF 14:42UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 42m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 03m 99% 86%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192 2h 31m Boston BOS 12:04 → BUF 13:51B6 915 7h 21m 98% 86%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 07:18 → JFK 10:00B6 226 3h 29m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 41m 99% 86%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 11:23 → BOS 14:25B6 692 3h 44m Boston BOS 18:09 → BUF 19:57B6 715 8h 34m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 4h 56m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → CLT 07:48AA 1225 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:13 → BUF 12:02AA 1203 6h 02m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 19:00 → ATL 20:55DL 1425 57m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 4h 59m 61% 48%
AmericanDetails → TPA 12:11 → LGA 14:54AA 880 52m New York LGA 15:46 → BUF 17:15AA 4496 · flown by Republic 5h 04m 46% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON