Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1832 at 13:48, 18%.

Nonstops that day


F9 1832 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:48	CLE 16:27	18%	6%	2.1%	77%
F9 2920 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:22	CLE 22:51	26%	13%	1.8%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709	5h 06m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	5h 17m	98%	90%
United Details →	TPA 07:24 → ORD 09:27UA 2189	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 12:44 → CLE 15:20UA 1878	7h 56m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775	6h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	5h 20m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350	7h 27m	100%	87%
American Details →	TPA 15:59 → PHL 18:39AA 809	3h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 22:17 → CLE 23:42AA 981	7h 43m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:04 → MSP 17:34DL 2264	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:43DL 1392	8h 39m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → CLE 22:26DL 1339	4h 23m	60%	52%
American Details →	TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798	1h 53m Miami	MIA 20:45 → CLE 23:48AA 363	6h 07m	66%	48%
United Details →	TPA 16:21 → EWR 19:06UA 1321	49m Newark	EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398	5h 24m	46%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON