Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 653 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 653 TPA 05:39 → CLT 07:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1974 TPA 18:09 → CLT 19:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 653 American	TPA 05:39	CLT 07:38	4%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 1975 American	TPA 10:46	CLT 12:34	8%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 09:12	CLT 10:57	9%	4%	1.0%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	9%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 436 American Flight history →	TPA 12:56	CLT 14:43	15%	6%	1.8%	84%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	TPA 14:46	CLT 16:32	18%	6%	1.9%	75%
AA 1982 American	TPA 16:14	CLT 18:06	20%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 1974 American	TPA 18:09	CLT 19:56	25%	10%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON