Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1369 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 07:00 → DFW 08:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2512 TPA 18:38 → DFW 20:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	DFW 08:58	7%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 1628 American	TPA 09:49	DFW 11:37	11%	5%	1.3%	no record
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:05	DFW 14:00	13%	5%	2.7%	84%
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:15	DFW 13:00	15%	6%	1.6%	77%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:15	DFW 15:58	18%	9%	1.9%	78%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:03	DFW 18:47	25%	10%	2.7%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	TPA 18:38	DFW 20:25	28%	13%	3.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON