tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2263 Delta Flight history → TPA 07:45 MSP 10:02 6% 2% 1.0% 92%
DL 2264 Delta Flight history → TPA 15:04 MSP 17:34 15% 6% 1.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406 1h 41m Boston BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 8h 02m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 44m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 45m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 09:11 → RDU 11:04DL 1279 3h 42m Raleigh/Durham RDU 14:46 → MSP 16:41DL 2521 8h 30m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:33 → SLC 09:14DL 2045 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 9h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 15m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 7h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:23 → BOS 14:35DL 2706 3h 20m Boston BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098 9h 58m 99% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:38 → DFW 20:25AA 2512 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 6h 19m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON