Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 2538 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day F9 2538 TPA 08:11 → PHL 11:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 809 TPA 15:59 → PHL 18:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 08:11	PHL 11:04	7%	3%	1.3%	68%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:48	PHL 13:26	10%	3%	1.0%	90%
F9 2836 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 00:28	PHL 03:31	10%	5%	1.6%	82%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:20	PHL 14:53	17%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 776 American	TPA 14:34	PHL 17:02	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
F9 4808 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:17	PHL 19:07	22%	8%	2.7%	73%
AA 809 American Flight history →	TPA 15:59	PHL 18:39	23%	6%	1.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON