Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3958 at 06:17, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 3958 TPA 06:17 → STL 07:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2905 TPA 18:26 → STL 19:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3958 Southwest	TPA 06:17	STL 07:43	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1149 Southwest	TPA 15:24	STL 16:45	25%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 2905 Southwest	TPA 18:26	STL 19:48	28%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON