Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AS 50 at 16:12, 30%.

Nonstops that day


AS 50 Alaska	ANC 16:12	HNL 20:35	30%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:59 → SEA 06:24DL 925	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	11h 35m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:34 → PDX 06:09AS 593	1h 52m Portland	PDX 08:01 → HNL 10:48AS 880	11h 14m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:20 → SEA 06:42AS 98	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 08:58 → HNL 11:54AS 853	11h 34m	99%	57%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:21AS 268	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:14AS 899	11h 11m	97%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:00 → SEA 11:23AS 48	46m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:14AS 899	10h 14m	71%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON