Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 725 ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 819 ATL 19:45 → SAN 21:26 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SAN 09:26	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	SAN 11:43	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	SAN 13:08	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SAN 19:41	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:37	SAN 17:20	16%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	SAN 21:26	17%	4%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:08 → BNA 07:17WN 186	52m Nashville	BNA 08:09 → SAN 10:18WN 2668	6h 10m	91%	81%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24WN 212	1h 18m Las Vegas	LAS 09:42 → SAN 10:54WN 1604	6h 27m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	55m Las Vegas	LAS 12:57 → SAN 14:13DL 3741 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON