Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2762 at 14:09, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2762 United	EUG 14:09	ORD 20:11	26%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Eugene). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 38m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	7h 55m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:15 → SEA 14:31AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	8h 44m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637	8h 28m	99%	77%
United Details →	EUG 05:56 → SFO 07:44UA 335	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 10:19 → ORD 16:33UA 2827	8h 37m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON