Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4482 LGB 07:29 → SMF 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 820 LGB 16:02 → SMF 17:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4482 Southwest	LGB 07:29	SMF 09:00	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2345 Southwest	LGB 10:02	SMF 11:34	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2455 Southwest	LGB 18:05	SMF 19:32	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2720 Southwest	LGB 13:26	SMF 14:56	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 820 Southwest	LGB 16:02	SMF 17:33	10%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON