Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1033 at 07:03, 8%.

Safest bet that day B6 1033 MCO 07:03 → SJU 10:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 2832 MCO 15:14 → SJU 18:07 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:03	SJU 10:07	8%	3%	0.8%	74%
WN 646 Southwest	MCO 08:10	SJU 11:04	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:15	SJU 11:16	15%	6%	1.3%	68%
WN 1490 Southwest	MCO 09:25	SJU 12:22	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2238 Southwest	MCO 10:40	SJU 13:34	19%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	20%	7%	2.1%	77%
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:12	24%	6%	0.9%	86%
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:34	SJU 15:41	25%	7%	0.9%	72%
WN 995 Southwest	MCO 13:34	SJU 16:30	28%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 2113 Southwest	MCO 19:03	SJU 21:58	31%	8%	2.7%	no record
WN 1452 Southwest	MCO 18:06	SJU 21:02	33%	10%	2.7%	no record
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:21	SJU 17:31	33%	7%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:03	SJU 22:09	33%	10%	2.7%	69%
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:55	SJU 19:01	37%	10%	1.3%	75%worse than usual
WN 2832 Southwest	MCO 15:14	SJU 18:07	37%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON