Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, QX 2319 at 12:15, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2319 Horizon	PAE 12:15	PDX 13:21	13%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 07:00 → LAS 09:25AS 380	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	6h 20m	96%	83%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:11 → PHX 09:44AS 732	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 11:05 → PDX 13:53AS 511	6h 42m	90%	80%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:03 → SNA 09:56AS 2270 · flown by Horizon	59m Santa Ana	SNA 10:55 → PDX 13:19AS 1405	6h 16m	88%	78%
Alaska Details →	PAE 09:09 → SAN 12:04AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	1h 59m San Diego	SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402	7h 27m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:18 → SFO 10:31AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	1h 37m San Francisco	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	5h 32m	91%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON